For 2020, Key Themes remain guided by our “2001 Analog” while recognizing an important distinction. In the prior period, both fiscal & monetary easing started in 2001, a year after stocks peaked & unemployment bottomed. In the current period, fiscal & monetary policy easing began, respectively, in 2016 & 2019 with stocks at record-highs & unemployment at record-lows (Fig. 2-5). This is the basis for our new Theme #1 “Late (Then), Early (Now)”.
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